Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.3%
Man United
15.3%
Draw
6.4%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
2.67
Man United
vs
0.69
Watford
Markets
BTTS47.5%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.585.8%
Over 2.565.4%
Over 3.543.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.3%
3-0
11.0%
2-1
8.6%
1-0
8.3%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
7.3%
1-1
7.3%
4-1
5.1%
0-0
4.3%
5-0
3.9%
2-2
3.0%
5-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).