Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →14.3%
Port Vale
22.5%
Draw
63.2%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.60
Port Vale
vs
1.62
Derby
Markets
BTTS35.3%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.564.2%
Over 2.538.3%
Over 3.518.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
18.5%
0-2
14.3%
0-0
9.9%
1-1
9.7%
1-2
8.6%
0-3
7.7%
1-0
7.4%
1-3
4.6%
2-1
3.2%
0-4
3.1%
2-2
2.6%
2-0
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).