Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →12.4%
Luton
17.0%
Draw
70.6%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Luton
vs
2.83
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS66.1%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.591.8%
Over 2.576.4%
Over 3.556.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
8.6%
1-3
8.1%
0-2
7.2%
1-1
6.9%
0-3
6.8%
1-4
5.7%
2-2
5.1%
0-4
4.8%
2-3
4.8%
0-1
4.3%
2-1
3.6%
2-4
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).