Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.9%
Sp Gijon
24.6%
Draw
16.4%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.60
Sp Gijon
vs
0.71
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS40.3%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.566.9%
Over 2.540.5%
Over 3.520.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.1%
2-0
12.8%
1-1
11.2%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.2%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
4.8%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.2%
4-0
2.7%
0-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).