Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.9%
Tondela
33.2%
Draw
34.9%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
0.81
Tondela
vs
0.86
Farense
Markets
BTTS31.5%
Over 0.581.8%
Over 1.549.2%
Over 2.523.5%
Over 3.58.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
18.2%
0-1
16.8%
1-0
15.8%
1-1
12.5%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
6.1%
1-2
5.7%
2-1
5.3%
2-2
2.3%
0-3
2.0%
3-0
1.7%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).