Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.4%
St Pauli
26.0%
Draw
31.6%
Werder Bremen
Expected Goals (xG)
1.65
St Pauli
vs
1.40
Werder Bremen
Markets
BTTS61.9%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.581.9%
Over 2.558.8%
Over 3.536.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
6.8%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.8%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.0%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
3.6%
3-0
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).