Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.3%
Ceuta
22.8%
Draw
24.9%
Valladolid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.82
Ceuta
vs
1.19
Valladolid
Markets
BTTS58.1%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.580.0%
Over 2.557.8%
Over 3.535.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.3%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.0%
0-0
4.9%
3-2
3.5%
0-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).