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14 Oct 2024 · 18:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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41.0%
Sporting Gijón
22.6%
Draw
36.3%
Castellon

Expected Goals (xG)

1.73

Sporting Gijón

vs
1.61

Castellon

Markets

BTTS65.7%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.584.5%
Over 2.564.8%
Over 3.542.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
9.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.9%
1-0
6.2%
0-1
5.8%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
4.9%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
4.3%
3-2
4.0%
2-3
3.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).