Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.8%
Watford
26.6%
Draw
52.6%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
1.04
Watford
vs
1.76
Burnley
Markets
BTTS55.1%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.578.4%
Over 2.553.0%
Over 3.530.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
9.4%
0-1
9.1%
0-0
7.6%
2-1
5.8%
1-3
5.7%
0-3
5.5%
2-2
5.1%
1-0
4.8%
2-0
3.3%
2-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).