Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.1%
Thun
24.5%
Draw
14.4%
Lugano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.99
Thun
vs
0.89
Lugano
Markets
BTTS52.6%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.579.9%
Over 2.554.9%
Over 3.532.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.7%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.4%
0-0
7.4%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
4.4%
4-0
3.6%
0-1
3.3%
4-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).