Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.3%
Vallecano
30.5%
Draw
29.2%
Ath Bilbao
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Vallecano
vs
0.93
Ath Bilbao
Markets
BTTS41.6%
Over 0.587.2%
Over 1.561.7%
Over 2.534.4%
Over 3.515.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.1%
1-1
13.7%
0-0
12.8%
0-1
11.4%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
3.6%
3-0
3.1%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).