Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.7%
Middlesbrough
26.8%
Draw
19.5%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Middlesbrough
vs
0.89
Watford
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.572.4%
Over 2.545.8%
Over 3.524.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
12.2%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.2%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.2%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
4.2%
0-2
3.2%
4-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).