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AHT: 12CSV

11 May 2025 · 14:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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36.0%
Leverkusen
26.2%
Draw
37.8%
Dortmund

Expected Goals (xG)

1.46

Leverkusen

vs
1.50

Dortmund

Markets

BTTS60.5%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.580.3%
Over 2.556.7%
Over 3.534.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
6.9%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
0-2
5.8%
2-0
5.5%
1-3
4.3%
3-1
4.0%
2-3
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).