Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.8%
Ath Madrid
21.8%
Draw
12.4%
Valencia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Ath Madrid
vs
0.67
Valencia
Markets
BTTS41.4%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.572.2%
Over 2.546.5%
Over 3.525.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.6%
2-0
13.8%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
8.6%
0-0
8.1%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.1%
4-0
4.0%
1-2
3.3%
2-2
3.1%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).