Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.8%
Le Mans
30.5%
Draw
18.7%
Bastia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Le Mans
vs
0.54
Bastia
Markets
BTTS27.2%
Over 0.582.0%
Over 1.548.5%
Over 2.523.3%
Over 3.58.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
22.2%
0-0
18.0%
2-0
11.9%
0-1
11.2%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
6.4%
3-0
4.5%
1-2
3.1%
0-2
2.8%
3-1
2.4%
2-2
1.7%
4-0
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).