Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.5%
Vallecano
25.9%
Draw
32.6%
Sp Gijon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Vallecano
vs
1.21
Sp Gijon
Markets
BTTS52.8%
Over 0.592.8%
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
1-0
10.4%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.5%
0-0
7.2%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
5.3%
3-1
4.1%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).