Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.1%
Sp Braga
13.9%
Draw
5.9%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.35
Sp Braga
vs
0.46
Tondela
Markets
BTTS33.3%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.576.9%
Over 2.553.5%
Over 3.531.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
16.5%
1-0
14.3%
3-0
13.0%
2-1
7.7%
4-0
7.6%
1-1
6.2%
3-1
6.0%
0-0
5.7%
5-0
3.6%
4-1
3.5%
0-1
3.1%
2-2
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).