Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.3%
Spezia
28.7%
Draw
22.0%
Bari
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Spezia
vs
0.91
Bari
Markets
BTTS47.6%
Over 0.589.7%
Over 1.570.4%
Over 2.543.0%
Over 3.522.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
10.3%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.0%
3-1
4.5%
2-2
4.2%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).