Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.1%
Nacional
33.1%
Draw
28.8%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05
Nacional
vs
0.87
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS38.6%
Over 0.584.5%
Over 1.558.0%
Over 2.530.1%
Over 3.512.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
15.5%
1-0
14.5%
1-1
14.2%
0-1
12.0%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
3.1%
3-0
2.8%
3-1
2.4%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).