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23 Nov 2024 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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54.7%
Bolton
22.9%
Draw
22.4%
Blackpool

Expected Goals (xG)

1.62

Bolton

vs
0.92

Blackpool

Markets

BTTS47.2%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.546.6%
Over 3.525.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
13.8%
1-1
10.8%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
8.3%
0-0
6.9%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.4%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.3%
3-2
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).