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23 Sept 2023 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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33.3%
Cheltenham
29.8%
Draw
37.0%
Stevenage

Expected Goals (xG)

0.90

Cheltenham

vs
0.97

Stevenage

Markets

BTTS35.9%
Over 0.585.8%
Over 1.554.9%
Over 2.529.0%
Over 3.512.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
16.0%
1-0
15.0%
0-0
14.2%
1-1
12.3%
0-2
7.2%
1-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
2-1
6.1%
2-2
3.0%
0-3
2.3%
1-3
2.1%
3-0
1.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).