Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.1%
Newport County
22.2%
Draw
58.7%
Notts County
Expected Goals (xG)
0.89
Newport County
vs
1.78
Notts County
Markets
BTTS48.7%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.550.0%
Over 3.528.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.7%
0-2
10.9%
1-1
10.5%
1-2
9.8%
1-0
6.6%
0-3
6.5%
0-0
6.5%
1-3
5.8%
2-1
4.9%
2-2
4.4%
0-4
2.9%
2-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).