Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.7%
Ponferradina
32.0%
Draw
37.4%
Burgos
Expected Goals (xG)
0.86
Ponferradina
vs
0.99
Burgos
Markets
BTTS36.2%
Over 0.584.5%
Over 1.555.1%
Over 2.528.4%
Over 3.511.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.6%
0-0
15.5%
1-0
13.7%
1-1
13.3%
0-2
7.7%
1-2
6.6%
2-0
5.9%
2-1
5.8%
2-2
2.9%
0-3
2.5%
1-3
2.2%
3-0
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).