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AHT: 11CSV

05 Dec 2022 · 20:00

Burgos

Away

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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30.7%
Ponferradina
32.0%
Draw
37.4%
Burgos

Expected Goals (xG)

0.86

Ponferradina

vs
0.99

Burgos

Markets

BTTS36.2%
Over 0.584.5%
Over 1.555.1%
Over 2.528.4%
Over 3.511.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
15.6%
0-0
15.5%
1-0
13.7%
1-1
13.3%
0-2
7.7%
1-2
6.6%
2-0
5.9%
2-1
5.8%
2-2
2.9%
0-3
2.5%
1-3
2.2%
3-0
1.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).