Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.1%
Stoke
31.5%
Draw
28.4%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Stoke
vs
0.96
Watford
Markets
BTTS44.0%
Over 0.587.2%
Over 1.564.3%
Over 2.536.3%
Over 3.517.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-0
12.8%
1-0
12.8%
0-1
10.1%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
3.8%
3-0
3.3%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).