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14 Oct 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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62.3%
Bielefeld
22.9%
Draw
14.8%
Wurzburger Kickers

Expected Goals (xG)

1.98

Bielefeld

vs
0.87

Wurzburger Kickers

Markets

BTTS51.2%
Over 0.593.3%
Over 1.578.8%
Over 2.554.4%
Over 3.532.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
11.3%
1-1
10.9%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.5%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
4.3%
0-1
4.1%
4-0
3.7%
4-1
3.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).