Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.4%
Villarreal
22.1%
Draw
17.4%
Ath Bilbao
Expected Goals (xG)
1.96
Villarreal
vs
0.95
Ath Bilbao
Markets
BTTS53.2%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.579.1%
Over 2.555.7%
Over 3.533.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.5%
2-0
10.4%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
6.5%
0-0
5.8%
1-2
4.8%
0-1
4.8%
2-2
4.7%
4-0
3.3%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).