Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.9%
Casa Pia
23.3%
Draw
20.8%
Pacos Ferreira
Expected Goals (xG)
1.67
Casa Pia
vs
0.90
Pacos Ferreira
Markets
BTTS47.7%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.572.2%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.3%
1-1
11.0%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.6%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
7.1%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
1-2
5.2%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.1%
4-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).