Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.0%
AFC Wimbledon
26.5%
Draw
17.5%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
AFC Wimbledon
vs
0.64
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS35.1%
Over 0.587.5%
Over 1.559.9%
Over 2.533.4%
Over 3.515.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.7%
2-0
12.8%
0-0
12.5%
1-1
11.1%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.2%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
3.8%
1-2
3.7%
0-2
2.7%
2-2
2.6%
4-0
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).