Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.8%
Chesterfield
24.7%
Draw
40.5%
Notts County
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Chesterfield
vs
1.41
Notts County
Markets
BTTS54.4%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.574.7%
Over 2.550.8%
Over 3.528.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.7%
0-1
10.0%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
5.6%
2-0
5.6%
1-3
4.1%
3-1
3.4%
0-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).