Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.6%
Rio Ave
31.0%
Draw
28.4%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Rio Ave
vs
0.97
Alverca
Markets
BTTS44.8%
Over 0.587.8%
Over 1.565.3%
Over 2.537.4%
Over 3.517.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
1-0
12.6%
0-0
12.2%
0-1
9.9%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.3%
2-2
3.9%
3-0
3.4%
3-1
3.3%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).