Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.4%
Brentford
26.5%
Draw
43.2%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Brentford
vs
1.71
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS63.3%
Over 0.594.1%
Over 1.583.2%
Over 2.560.2%
Over 3.537.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.1%
0-0
5.9%
1-3
5.2%
1-0
4.8%
2-0
4.4%
0-3
3.7%
2-3
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).