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AHT: 03CSV

05 Jan 2025 · 20:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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28.3%
Estrela
20.3%
Draw
51.5%
Estoril

Expected Goals (xG)

1.52

Estrela

vs
2.10

Estoril

Markets

BTTS68.3%
Over 0.597.7%
Over 1.587.3%
Over 2.570.2%
Over 3.549.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-2
9.0%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
6.8%
2-1
6.5%
1-3
6.3%
0-1
6.0%
0-2
5.9%
2-3
4.8%
1-0
4.4%
0-3
4.1%
3-2
3.5%
1-4
3.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).