Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.2%
Plymouth
26.2%
Draw
46.5%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Plymouth
vs
1.62
Watford
Markets
BTTS56.8%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.578.0%
Over 2.553.4%
Over 3.531.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
0-0
6.8%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.6%
1-3
5.1%
0-3
4.3%
2-0
4.3%
2-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).