Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →16.4%
Newport County
20.4%
Draw
63.1%
Notts County
Expected Goals (xG)
0.86
Newport County
vs
1.94
Notts County
Markets
BTTS49.0%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.576.5%
Over 2.553.1%
Over 3.530.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.2%
0-2
11.4%
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
0-3
7.4%
1-3
6.4%
1-0
5.7%
0-0
5.6%
2-1
4.4%
2-2
4.2%
0-4
3.6%
1-4
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).