Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.7%
Spal
20.9%
Draw
21.3%
Crotone
Expected Goals (xG)
2.03
Spal
vs
1.15
Crotone
Markets
BTTS59.3%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.582.5%
Over 2.561.7%
Over 3.539.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
8.6%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
6.7%
3-0
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
0-1
5.0%
0-0
4.0%
3-2
3.8%
4-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).