Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.5%
Southampton
26.8%
Draw
32.7%
Middlesbrough
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Southampton
vs
1.32
Middlesbrough
Markets
BTTS57.7%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.578.0%
Over 2.553.4%
Over 3.531.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
0-1
7.0%
0-0
6.9%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
0-2
5.2%
3-1
4.4%
1-3
3.4%
3-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).