Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.6%
Port Vale
24.9%
Draw
20.5%
Gillingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Port Vale
vs
0.82
Gillingham
Markets
BTTS43.4%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.541.8%
Over 3.521.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.1%
1-1
11.5%
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
8.3%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
2-2
3.8%
0-2
3.2%
4-0
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).