Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.3%
Oviedo
24.4%
Draw
16.3%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Oviedo
vs
0.71
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.567.3%
Over 2.541.0%
Over 3.520.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.9%
2-0
12.8%
1-1
11.1%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
4.9%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.2%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).