Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.5%
Estrela
28.4%
Draw
40.1%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Estrela
vs
1.37
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS53.0%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.573.6%
Over 2.547.3%
Over 3.525.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.6%
0-0
8.7%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
5.1%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).