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AHT: 10CSV

12 Aug 2022 · 19:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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19.3%
Freiburg
22.1%
Draw
58.6%
Dortmund

Expected Goals (xG)

1.12

Freiburg

vs
2.07

Dortmund

Markets

BTTS59.6%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.583.5%
Over 2.561.9%
Over 3.539.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
10.2%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
7.8%
1-3
6.8%
0-3
6.1%
2-2
5.5%
2-1
5.3%
0-0
4.7%
1-0
4.0%
2-3
3.8%
1-4
3.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).