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05 Oct 2025 · 16:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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42.2%
Rio Ave
31.7%
Draw
26.1%
Tondela

Expected Goals (xG)

1.19

Rio Ave

vs
0.88

Tondela

Markets

BTTS41.8%
Over 0.586.4%
Over 1.562.4%
Over 2.534.3%
Over 3.515.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.2%
1-0
14.0%
0-0
13.6%
0-1
10.0%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
4.9%
3-0
3.6%
2-2
3.5%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
1.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).