Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.1%
Plymouth
24.9%
Draw
51.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Plymouth
vs
1.81
Derby
Markets
BTTS59.1%
Over 0.594.1%
Over 1.581.0%
Over 2.557.7%
Over 3.535.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.2%
0-1
8.1%
2-1
6.4%
0-0
5.9%
1-3
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
1-0
5.0%
0-3
4.9%
2-0
3.5%
2-3
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).