Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.9%
Aston Villa
16.9%
Draw
6.2%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
2.42
Aston Villa
vs
0.59
Watford
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.594.1%
Over 1.581.2%
Over 2.557.8%
Over 3.535.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.4%
3-0
11.6%
1-0
11.0%
2-1
8.5%
1-1
8.0%
4-0
7.0%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.9%
4-1
4.1%
5-0
3.4%
2-2
2.5%
1-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).