Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.0%
Estrela
28.9%
Draw
38.1%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Estrela
vs
1.27
Nacional
Markets
BTTS50.4%
Over 0.590.5%
Over 1.570.8%
Over 2.544.1%
Over 3.523.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
0-1
10.3%
0-0
9.5%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
3.5%
0-3
3.0%
3-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).