Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.3%
Manchester City
24.4%
Draw
20.3%
Bournemouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.98
Manchester City
vs
1.15
Bournemouth
Markets
BTTS60.3%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.583.4%
Over 2.560.6%
Over 3.538.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.6%
1-0
7.3%
3-1
6.5%
0-0
5.7%
1-2
5.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-0
5.7%
3-2
3.8%
0-1
3.6%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).