Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →23.8%
Derby
24.6%
Draw
51.6%
Fulham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Derby
vs
1.84
Fulham
Markets
BTTS59.6%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.558.5%
Over 3.536.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.1%
0-1
7.9%
2-1
6.3%
1-3
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
0-0
5.7%
0-3
5.0%
1-0
4.8%
2-3
3.6%
2-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).