Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.5%
Farense
32.8%
Draw
30.7%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.04
Farense
vs
0.93
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS39.9%
Over 0.585.2%
Over 1.559.3%
Over 2.531.4%
Over 3.513.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
14.8%
1-1
14.3%
1-0
13.7%
0-1
12.2%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
3.2%
3-0
2.6%
3-1
2.4%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).