Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.0%
Tondela
28.8%
Draw
35.2%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05
Tondela
vs
1.04
Estrela
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.588.3%
Over 1.561.3%
Over 2.534.8%
Over 3.516.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.6%
0-1
13.4%
1-1
12.9%
0-0
11.7%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
3.7%
3-1
2.5%
1-3
2.4%
3-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).