Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.4%
Portimonense
24.9%
Draw
41.7%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Portimonense
vs
1.42
Setubal
Markets
BTTS53.3%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.549.6%
Over 3.527.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
0-1
10.5%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.4%
2-0
5.4%
1-3
4.1%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).