⚽ FootballData
4 – 1
HHT: 11CSV

17 Feb 2026 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
76.2%
Cardiff
13.8%
Draw
10.0%
AFC Wimbledon

Expected Goals (xG)

2.59

Cardiff

vs
0.81

AFC Wimbledon

Markets

BTTS50.7%
Over 0.597.2%
Over 1.584.7%
Over 2.566.0%
Over 3.544.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
11.2%
3-0
9.7%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.1%
3-1
7.8%
1-1
6.4%
4-0
6.3%
4-1
5.1%
2-2
3.7%
0-1
3.3%
5-0
3.2%
3-2
3.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).